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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 11.7 | 12.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.8 | 24.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 22.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 14.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | DET | 4.2 | 5.0 | BUST | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 20.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
Jacoby Brissett (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 presents a strong matchup advantage against Auto DraftKings with a projected +34 point margin (139.0 vs 95.0). Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters as consensus WR1 against a weak Indianapolis defense with Seattle favored by 13.5 points and a BOOM projection of 24 pts. Jordan Love gets the start over Jacoby Brissett with favorable Vegas implied points (23.0) despite the cold Denver weather. Thursday's game features Bucky Irving in a favorable spot against Atlanta's porous run defense, while Jameson Williams draws the FLEX role in the highest-scoring game of the week (55.5 total).
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 14.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.8 | 24.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 22.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 20.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 14.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.8 | 4.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.3 | 6.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 17.0 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | 8.1 | 3.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 8.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | 16.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 16.7 | 14.2 |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB | 2.9 | 6.4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | 13.3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | 14.5 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.2 | 10.3 |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.1 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.9 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell (bench) | RB | BE | 12.6 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.7 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM, 49% MODERATE. XGB: 28% boom (agrees). DEN defense #12 vs QB. Cold weather (35F) but manageable. Favored by 2.5. Project MODERATE mode at 17 pts.
Context: O/U: 43.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM (anomaly - small sample). XGB: 38% bust. HOU defense #15 vs QB. Expert QB20. ARI losing big. Project MODERATE mode at 14 pts (not starting).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 19% BOOM, 65% MODERATE. XGB: 10% boom (lower than MC). ATL defense #11 vs RB (middling). Expert RB8. High-volume role. Project MODERATE mode at 15 pts.
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM. XGB: 44% bust. SF defense #30 vs RB (worst in league!). Expert RB53 (very low). Upside vs weak run D. Project MODERATE mode at 9 pts.
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 27% BOOM. XGB: 56% bust (concerning). Chargers role uncertain. Expert RB17. Indoor. Project MODERATE mode at 12 pts.
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST. XGB: 50% bust (agrees). Expert RB30. Cold weather (30F). Giants offense struggling. Project BUST mode at 4 pts.
Context: O/U: 47.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 41% MODERATE. XGB: 11% boom (lower). IND defense #22 vs WR (weak). SEA favored by 13.5. Indoor, high-volume target. Project BOOM mode at 24 pts.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 16% BOOM. XGB: 54% bust (agrees). CAR offense limited. Playing NO. Low game total 40.5. Project BUST mode at 8 pts.
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. XGB: 38% boom (higher). HOU defense #11 vs WR (tough). ARI losing by 9.5. Heel injury concern. Project MODERATE mode at 13 pts.
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM (highest on roster), 26% MODERATE. XGB: 34% boom. LAC defense #20 vs WR. KC favored in divisional game. Primary target. Project BOOM mode at 22 pts.
Context: O/U: 41.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 33% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MODERATE, 24% BOOM. XGB: 48% bust (disagrees). BUT game total 55.5 (highest of week!). DET offense explosive. LAR defense #9 vs WR. Trust game environment. Project BOOM mode at 20 pts.
Context: O/U: 55.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 3.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 46% BUST, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% bust. CHI offense inconsistent. Cold weather (25F). Low game total 39.5. Project BUST mode at 3 pts.
Context: O/U: 39.5
MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MODERATE, 32% BOOM. XGB: 30% bust. Playing CAR (weak defense). Expert TE12. Project MODERATE mode at 10 pts.
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 26% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE. XGB: 60% bust (agrees). BUF weather: 28F, 20mph wind, snow. Bad conditions. Expert TE13. Project BUST mode at 6 pts.
Context: O/U: 50.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 16% BOOM. XGB: 54% bust (agrees). CAR offense limited. Playing NO. Low game total 40.5. Project BUST mode at 8 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 13.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 18%
Notes: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE. XGB: 38% boom (higher). HOU defense #11 vs WR (tough). ARI losing by 9.5. Heel injury concern. Project MODERATE mode at 13 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 40%
Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE, 15% BOOM. XGB: 44% bust. SF defense #30 vs RB (worst in league!). Expert RB53 (very low). Upside vs weak run D. Project MODERATE mode at 9 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 73% BOOM (anomaly - small sample). XGB: 38% bust. HOU defense #15 vs QB. Expert QB20. ARI losing big. Project MODERATE mode at 14 pts (not starting).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 61%
Notes: MC: 48% BUST, 40% MODERATE. XGB: 60% bust (agrees). BUF weather: 28F, 20mph wind, snow. Bad conditions. Expert TE13. Project BUST mode at 6 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 4.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST. XGB: 50% bust (agrees). Expert RB30. Cold weather (30F). Giants offense struggling. Project BUST mode at 4 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 3.0
MC (Historical): BOOM: 10% | MODERATE: 44% | BUST: 46%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 42%
Notes: MC: 46% BUST, 44% MODERATE. XGB: 44% bust. CHI offense inconsistent. Cold weather (25F). Low game total 39.5. Project BUST mode at 3 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +0.7 |
| 13 | PHI | 8.3 | - | 7.6 | -0.7 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.6 | - | 9.1 | +1.5 |
| 11 | MIN | 6.2 | - | 5.7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | NYG | 3.4 | - | 8.1 | +4.7 |
| 9 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | BAL | 4.8 | - | 0.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | NO | 4.9 | - | 3.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | WSH | 4.8 | - | 9.1 | +4.3 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | LV | 5.8 | - | 1.6 | -4.2 |
| 3 | DAL | 2.7 | - | 19.8 | +17.1 |
| 2 | DET | 2.7 | - | 1.5 | -1.2 |
| 1 | MIN | 3.2 | - | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.9 | 10.0 | BOOM | 31% | 46% | 23% | MEDIUM |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | WSH | 3.1 | 3.3 | MODERATE | 24% | 38% | 38% | MEDIUM |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.7 | 14.5 | MODERATE | 22% | 55% | 23% | MEDIUM |
| Jake Elliott | K | PHI | 8.0 | 6.7 | BUST | 20% | 25% | 56% | LOW |
| Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 2.9 | 6.4 | MODERATE | 14% | 48% | 38% | LOW |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.1 | 16.5 | MODERATE | 11% | 45% | 44% | LOW |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.2 | 10.3 | BUST | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 16.8 | 13.3 | BUST | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 16.7 | 14.2 | BUST | 8% | 35% | 58% | LOW |
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 31% | Bust 23%)
Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 25% | BUST: 50%) | XGB (Boom 24% | Bust 38%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 22% | Bust 23%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 20% | Bust 56%)
Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 41% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 38%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 44%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 58%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.1 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 36% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.3 | 34% | 14% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 32% | 16% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 29% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.5 | 21% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 20% | 9% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.8 | 20% | 35% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 19% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 9.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 16% | 58% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 20% | 35% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 19% | 56% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 43% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.1 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 42% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 32% | 16% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 29% | 26% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.5 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 21% | 31% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 10% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 36% | 35% | |
| Matthew Golden | 9.0 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:31% | 18% | 48% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 16% | 58% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 12% | 66% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 11% | 66% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.3 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 34% | 14% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 20% | 9% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.8 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 27% | 54% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 20% | 22% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 14% | 68% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.4 | 43% | 21% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 47% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.7 | 14% | 63% |
Win Probability
Floor: -28.3 pts | Median: +14.7 pts | Ceiling: +55.9 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.2-27.9 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 15.0 | 5.2-24.1 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 12.0 | 3.6-24.5 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 24.0 | 6.3-30.4 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.1-27.8 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 20.0 | 4.0-25.2 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.9-16.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 5.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 14.0 | 5.2-17.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 17.0 | 6.5-27.7 | ↑15+: 55% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.4-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 4.0 | 0.7-18.2 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 5.4-25.8 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 3.7-21.9 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | HIGH | 3.0 | 0.8-14.1 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 3.5-22.0 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 16.5 | 6.0-29.8 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 14.2 | 8.6-37.6 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 6.4 | 1.6-28.0 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 38% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 14.5 | 5.5-23.0 | ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 13.3 | 2.6-29.1 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 3.5-24.3 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.8-17.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 3.3 | 0.0-10.2 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 75% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 6.7 | 2.2-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.3-25.1 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.7-24.6 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.6 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.6-22.1 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.4-21.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.3 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 25% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.5-18.3 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.6 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 14.0 | BOOM | 46.3% | 33.4% | 20.4% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.8 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 41.5% | 40.4% | 18.1% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 22.0 | BOOM | 33.3% | 36.7% | 29.9% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 28.1% | 50.7% | 21.2% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 25.6% | 44.9% | 29.5% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.7 | 4.0 | BUST | 16.3% | 34.2% | 49.5% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 8.1 | 3.0 | BUST | 14.4% | 43.7% | 41.9% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 14.2% | 45.3% | 40.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 14.1% | 48.6% | 37.3% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | BUST | 13.7% | 26.0% | 60.4% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 20.0 | BOOM | 11.9% | 37.0% | 51.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.8 | 24.0 | BOOM | 11.5% | 64.0% | 24.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 8.0 | BUST | 11.2% | 34.9% | 53.9% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 11.2% | 35.5% | 53.3% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 10.0% | 38.7% | 51.3% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 11.0 | 6.0 | BUST | 9.0% | 29.7% | 61.3% |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W4 | 73.8% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.7% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 34.0% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.2% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1531.2 | -52.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No urgent adds needed this week. Monitor MHJ status - if ruled OUT, Tetairoa McMillan (12.0 pts) or Luther Burden III (11.0 pts) become viable FLEX alternatives. Rams D/ST streaming candidates: Patriots D/ST (68% owned, vs ARI) or Chiefs D/ST (24% owned, vs LAC) both have better matchups.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 24.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 16.1 | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 15.7 | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 16.7 | 14.2 | 0.0 | -14.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 16.8 | 13.3 | 0.0 | -13.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.2 | 10.3 | 0.0 | -10.3 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 8.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | -6.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Sean Tucker | 2.9 | 6.4 | 0.0 | -6.4 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 3.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | -3.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.